Tropical Storm Fay defies predictions, heads towards North Florida

(Jacksonville, Fla., Aug. 20, 12:13 p.m.)--We know we’re in trouble when weather forecasters don’t agree what a storm will do, and with Tropical Storm Fay, there’s a definite sense this system isn’t behaving like a proper tropical storm should. Weather Underground’s eminent blogger Dr. Jeff Masters had this to say on his blog Tuesday morning: “To have a storm intensify over land and maintain that increased intensity while over land for 12 hours is hard to explain. The only thing I can think is that recent rains in Florida have formed large areas of standing water that the storm is feeding off of. Fay is also probably pulling moisture from Lake Okeechobee. Anyone want to write a Ph.D. thesis on this case? Wow.” As of 11 a.m.,  Weather Underground says the First Coast is under a Tropical Storm warning, a Flood Watch, and a Hurricane Wind Watch and a few other advisories as well. The National Weather Service estimates rainfall between 6-12 inches.

I suspect power outages will, as Mayor John Peyton advises, be widespread. Peyton's been all over this storm, and with good reason. Jacksonville is one big green city—lots of trees have escaped the developers’ scalpels. South of the city, where I live, there are lots of old oaks and other hardwoods. Mother Nature is not likely to be kind to them. Florida Power and Light is dealing with more than 14,000 outages Fay caused in Brevard and Collier Counties alone.

There’s a lot of useful information available. See links to resources in the ‘References’ section below this post.  If you think you may need to go to a shelter, do yourself a favor and print the list from the City of Jacksonville Emergency Center. If you live in a low area prone to flooding, or if you live in a mobile home, don’t take chances. Jacksonville International Airport is in good shape right now, with most flights appearing to go smoothly. However, if you’re planning a flight tonight or tomorrow, be sure to check with your airline first. Air JTA service will suspend at 5 p.m. on Wednesday and won’t be available at all on Thursday, so if you’re relying on that service to get to the airport, make other plans. The National Weather Service will issue an intermediate advisory at 2 p.m. and a full advisory at 5 p.m.

There’s a lot of discussion going on right now among weather experts about what Tropical Storm Fay will do. This brings Hurricane Hugo, a memorable event from 1989, to mind. One weather forecaster in the Midlands area of South Carolina called that storm right and I was one who listened to him. Hugo turned, defying predictions made by many in our area, with the exception of weather guru Jim Gandy who at the time worked for WIS-TV. With Fay,  I’m counting on power outages and some street flooding. Where I live we have never had flooding, but there’s always a first. If you’re planning Florida travel or if you live here, stay on top of the ongoing forecasts—with Tropical Storm Fay, these forecasts have changed frequently because this has so far been one very creative weather system.

[Text by Kay B. Day; 5-day cone from National Weather Service website. For prior stories on Tropical Storm Fay, click the 'Covering Florida' category in the left column, or click the 'TS Fay' tag beneath this post.]

Jacksonville prepares for possible Category I hit from Hurricane-wannabe Fay

(Jacksonville, Fla.)—Aug. 19, 2008—Mayor John Peyton is taking Tropical Storm Fay seriously enough to close schools and non-emergency management city offices on Wednesday and Thursday. Speaking at a 6 p.m. press conference, Peyton says the city of Jacksonville has no evacuations planned at present. But those who live in low-lying areas “should relocate.” Shelters are being set up and the city’s emergency operations center will go to level 1 activation Wednesday morning, planning for a possible Category I level hit on Thursday from what would be Hurricane Fay, somewhere south of the city, between Duval and St. John’s County.  Substantial flooding, power outages and gusty winds are likely. Peyton will return to the press box Tuesday at 11 p.m. to give us an update. If you’re traveling to or from Florida along the East Coast, chances are you’ll go through Jacksonville.  Fay is so iffy it's hard to tell what she will do in the end, but Peyton is planning a worst case scenario, a good idea for planning in my opinion.

St. Augustine comes to mind, a grand old city between Duval and St. John’s county, an area near where I happen to live. I’m taking the standard precautions, hoping for the best. I just phoned my daughter, who happens to have my car because hers has a low tire, to ask her to pick up extra water and canned goods. We’ve already stocked up on batteries. I’ve tested my NOAA weather radio. More than once. First aid supplies are handy. This time I remembered to pick up a manual can opener. What more could a Floridian want as she anticipates a hurricane dropping by her home?

I’ve experienced two serious hurricanes, one of them when I was young. During that event I watched a tall old oak tree launch into the sky from our next door neighbor’s yard. That tree shot straight up, then thudded down with a boom so loud I thought the earth would crack open like a nut. I was standing on a wooden box in the basement of my father’s grocery store. There was a tiny slit in the brick just above ground level. My brother and I took turns watching. There’s nothing like a hurricane to remind you how good it is to be alive.

With Hurricane Fay considering a Jacksonville visit, all we can do is make preparations—Mayor Peyton suggested supplies and water to last for 9 days—and  pray everyone stays safe. I'll post regular updates throughout the week.

[Text by Kay B. Day; scroll down for more stories about Fay, or click on the Covering Florida category below.]

Update on Tuesday, August 19, 2008 at 08:34PM by Kay B. Day

(University of North Florida)--A media advisory says, "Due to Fay, the University of North Florida campus will close at 2 p.m. on Wednesday, Aug. 20, 2008. The campus will likely be closed on Thursday, Aug. 21, 2008, and no decision has been made about Friday, Aug. 22, 2008."

Information will be communicated to employees and students on the UNF Website, the MyWings portal and on the University’s main phone line (904) 620-1000.

TS Fay exercising a female's prerogative, to change her mind

(Jacksonville, Aug. 19)--We’re sitting here in North Florida like a big orange sitting duck, wondering exactly what Tropical Storm Fay will bring—monsoon, tornado, mammoth wind gusts? And the National Weather Service is basically confirming our sitting duck status—under a Tropical Storm Watch, with the following excerpt from a NWS advisory issued at 12:10 p.m.

AS FAY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF ST JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTIES. WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH MAINLY GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...OVER THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY AND ON PORTIONS OF THE ST JOHNS RIVER. SHOULD THE STORM EMERGE OVER THE ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY AND APPROACH THE COAST ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS THE CURRENT TRACK SUGGESTS...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

Basically we have to go pick up batteries, jugs of water, pet foods and people foods that won’t perish if your power goes out. I think this storm will test our patience with a lot of rain and some hefty wind gusts, and I think Fay will definitely wear out her welcome. I believe this tropical storm will turn back for one more dance with us before heading inland. The latest NWS 5-day cone is below. I’m hoping the back yard won’t look like the marsh once Tropical Storm Fay makes up her mind whether to sock us, rotate us, drench us and then do it all over again if she decides to take a big dip in The Atlantic Ocean and then turn back inland.

[Forecast and graphic from National Weather Service government site; text by Kay B. Day]

Ongoing dialog about felony murder rule in majority of US states

The felony murder rule is an American institution many legal authorities date to English common law, and a 26-year-old Florida man named Ryan Holle is one who, despite no criminal record, was handed a harsh sentence by the court because of the rule. The crime was pretty simple. Holle lent his car to a roommate. The roommate connected with others who went to a drug dealer’s home to steal a safe containing drugs. The group killed the dealer’s daughter during the robbery. Holle never went near the dealer; he was nursing a hangover from the night before, 1 ½ miles away from the crime scene.

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Customers speak to media about health supplements, claim illness

I first wrote about the FDA investigation of an outbreak of suspect selenium poisoning associated with consumption of Total Body Formula in the flavors of Tropical Orange and Peach Nectar, and Total Body Mega Formula in Orange/Tangerine flavor. I did the story in March at Covering Florida—I didn’t count on a lot of interest. But a number of people posted comments about their own experience with this health supplement, and now many of those who used the formula are speaking to media. The FDA published results of analyses in May, announcing the specified products contained hazardous amounts of both selenium and chromium. The ill effects aren’t pleasant—your hair can fall out and your fingernails may become discolored and fall out as well. Gastrointestinal problems are also common.

One of the commenters at my original story is a lawyer in Georgia; he’s filed a suit but says his client is not part of the class action lawsuit.

There’s an excellent section at the National Institutes of Health where you can find great information about supplements. The Georgia lawyer claims the products in question were manufactured in Arkansas, but I haven’t seen any documentation of that by the FDA yet. The FDA says more than 200 people are sick from taking the supplements. I covered the story in March, but mainstream media didn't take much notice at the time.

[Text by Kay B. Day; photo of one product from FDA website.]